Daunting times for Starmer as UK caught between US and EU

If only those who conceived and pushed through the UK’s Brexit adventure could have allowed themselves to hear the voices of reason that warned against leaving the EU both before and after the referendum, including today, five years on from the divorce taking effect.

The UK has always had euroskeptics among its society, but it seems today that they are a small minority, as the population overwhelmingly believes that Brexit has been more of a failure than a success.

In 2016, many of the 52 percent who voted “leave” were surely duped into doing so. The other 48 percent struggled to make the rest understand that breaking away from the EU would weaken us all. Those words were repeated by Starmer this week, when he became the first UK prime minister since Brexit to attend a pre-summit dinner of the 27 EU heads of state.

Starmer called on the gathered leaders to “maximize the industrial weight and clout that we have together,” amid the unfolding and ever-evolving threats to Europe blowing from the East, as well as from across the Atlantic.

Since claiming a landslide election victory in July last year, Starmer has worked to improve ties with the EU following years of toxic relations under the previous Conservative governments. He is hoping to agree to scrap some of the red tape that is hampering trade in a bid to recover some of the economic growth the UK has lost as a result of Brexit.

Starmer has worked to improve ties with the EU following years of toxic relations under the previous Conservative governments

Mohamed Chebaro

During his visit to Brussels, Starmer urged the EU leaders to reengage with the UK. But no one knows how far he will go, trapped as he is by the fear of reneging on his election manifesto promise that the UK will not rejoin the EU customs union or allow freedom of movement. And there is also the fear of drawing the wrath of the unpredictable US presidency of Donald Trump. The European leaders must have rolled their eyes when Starmer claimed that the UK is not choosing between the US and the EU.

London could surely choose to maintain its long-ambivalent role of keeping one foot in Europe and the other in America. But times have changed and the risk of tripping up in this endeavor due to the imbalances in today’s world are greater than ever.

The bare-bones Brexit trade deal saw the UK leave the EU’s single market and customs union. It meant goods could continue to move without tariffs or quotas, but it brought new red tape, costs and delays for businesses, especially for small and mid-sized companies, whose costs have increased and their competitiveness reduced.

The Conservative leadership at the time ignored all warnings by experts, including the government’s own Office for Budget Responsibility, which maintains that UK exports and imports will both be about 15 percent lower in the long run than if the country had remained in the EU, with economic productivity 4 percent less than it otherwise would have been.

Brexit supporters often argued that any short-term pain would be offset by the country’s new freedom to strike trade deals around the world. Since Brexit, the UK has signed trade agreements with countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada, with only minor effects on its overall growth. Now, however, the most hardcore advocates of Brexit, like Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, have changed their position and admitted that the benefits of leaving the EU have so far failed to materialize.

To be fair, Brexit has not played out as either its supporters or opponents anticipated, despite the facts of common sense and pure mathematics that have prevailed in recent years. Being a member of an economic grouping of more than half a billion consumers and part of a 28-country trading bloc surely offer more than a lone Britain can attain in a highly politically and economically competitive and divided world.

Yes, no one saw the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions coming or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Brexit made everything harder for the UK.

Trump has raised the stakes for Britain, which is now caught between its near neighbors and its transatlantic ‘special relationship’

Mohamed Chebaro

The desire to reduce migration was a major reason many Brits voted to leave. But Brexit has had the opposite impact five years on. Net migration is today far higher than before 2020 because the number of visas granted for workers and students from around the world has soared.

And the figures that ought to encourage Starmer’s government to forge ahead with seeking a more aligned position with the EU on trade and commerce are everywhere. Brexit has cost the City of London 40,000 financial services jobs, according to its lord mayor, while the fishing industry is on course to lose £300 million ($374 million) by next year as a result of being outside the EU.

Maybe the government is being extremely careful and mindful of the new tariffs being imposed by America in a world that is ushering in more protectionist political leaders. Trump has raised the stakes for Britain, which is now caught between its near neighbors in Europe and its transatlantic “special relationship.”

Starmer and the UK cannot be envied as, on one side, we have America, with which we do 17.6 percent of our trade, threatening to impose destructive tariffs if London makes any steps that are deemed below par for Trump. On the other, we have the EU, with which we do more than 46 percent of our trade, offering to boost our trade ties, as well as improving relations in terms of security and defense in an increasingly volatile world.

For me, the choice is a no-brainer, but for Starmer it must be a daunting period, as there is a risk of getting the country into trouble whatever he does.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.